The 2027 Medicare Part B premium: what is projected, what is not

In short: A widely shared figure of past $215 is not a Trustees projection. It is one outlet's alternative estimate.

In early July 2026, 24/7 Wall St. published a piece headlined that the 2027 Part B premium is projected to push past $215 a month. That number is not from the Trustees Report. The article itself acknowledges the Trustees figure is $209.50, then derives roughly $215 by applying its own higher assumption. The precedent is real: the 2021 Trustees Report projected $158.50 for 2022, and CMS finalized $170.10 in its fact sheet of November 12, 2021, a gap driven largely by the cost of a newly approved Alzheimer's drug.

There is a second wrinkle. The 2025 Trustees Report had projected $218.60 for 2027. The 2026 report revised that down to $209.50. Some pages, including at least one from a major personal finance publisher, are still running IRMAA surcharge math built on the older $218.60 figure. If you find a 2027 page whose numbers seem high by around nine dollars, that is usually why.

What to take from this: $209.50 is the current projection of record. Anything higher is somebody's forecast on top of a forecast, and anything built on $218.60 is a year out of date.

In short: By law the standard premium covers 25% of what Part B costs for enrollees 65 and older. General tax revenue covers the rest.

Section 1839 of the Social Security Act, at 42 U.S.C. 1395r, sets the rule. CMS calculates a monthly actuarial rate for aged enrollees, designed to cover half of projected per person Part B benefit and administrative costs. The standard beneficiary premium is set at half of that rate. Net effect: the premium covers about 25% of program costs, and general federal revenue covers the other 75%, a split Congress made permanent in the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. This is why the premium tracks Part B spending rather than inflation, and why it can fall, which it did in 2023.

In short: The 2027 projection is unusually small compared to recent years.

MOAA reported in June that the projected 3.25% "is the smallest since a 3.06% decrease in 2023," accurate, and note the word decrease. Several outlets have since restated it as "the smallest increase since 2023," which is not right: 2023 had no increase at all, it had a cut. The accurate version is one of two: the smallest year over year change since the 2023 decrease, or the smallest increase since 2021, when the premium rose 2.70%.

In short: Hold harmless caps your premium increase at the size of your Social Security raise. In a year with a decent COLA and a small premium bump, it protects almost nobody.

Section 1839(f) of the Social Security Act protects most people from having their Social Security check shrink because of a Part B premium increase. The test is in dollars, not percentages: your Part B premium cannot rise by more than the dollar amount of your COLA. In 2027 it is projected to be almost irrelevant, because a $6.60 premium increase is small and the COLA is currently projected to be considerably larger. In round terms, a $6.60 increase only outruns a 3.6% raise if your monthly benefit is under about $185.

Who hold harmless does not protect:

• Anyone enrolling in Part B for the first time that year.
• Anyone paying IRMAA. The statute excludes income related surcharge payers outright.
• Anyone not having the premium deducted from a Social Security check.
• Anyone whose premium is paid by a state Medicaid program, or who lost that coverage since last year.

In short: What matters is not the premium increase by itself, it is the premium increase against your raise.

The Social Security Administration announces the 2027 COLA on October 14, 2026, fixed by the release schedule for the September Consumer Price Index, the last input to the calculation. (The 2026 announcement slipped to October 24, 2025 because a government shutdown delayed the CPI release. That risk exists every year.) The Senior Citizens League publishes a monthly projection and has been walking it downward through 2026:

For context, the 2026 COLA was 2.8%, announced by the Social Security Administration on October 24, 2025.

Here is the arithmetic, and this is our calculation rather than a published figure. In 2026, a 9.68% premium increase hit a 2.8% raise, and the premium ate a large share of it. In 2027, if the COLA lands anywhere near 3.6% and the premium rises 3.25%, the premium consumes a noticeably smaller share of the raise than it did this year. That is not the same as saying you come out ahead against your actual grocery bill. It is only saying the Part B line specifically is projected to be less punishing than last year.

Shannon Benton, executive director of The Senior Citizens League, made the broader point in June: "A 3.8 percent COLA might sound like a lot compared to last year's 2.8 percent, but it won't be enough to make up the difference between what seniors bring in and what they need to live with dignity." Full detail on the COLA itself: the 2027 COLA and your Medicare page.

In short: Higher income enrollees pay the standard premium plus a surcharge, set by a different calculation entirely.

The 2027 IRMAA thresholds are indexed to CPI over a fixed twelve month window that closes at the end of August 2026, which means the 2027 IRMAA income thresholds become mathematically determined on September 11, 2026, roughly two months before anybody knows the final premium. We track that calculation on the 2027 IRMAA brackets page, which updates with every monthly inflation release.

In short: Expect early to mid November 2026, but the date genuinely moves.

CMS announces the Part B premium, the Part B deductible, and the Part A figures together, in a single fact sheet. There is no pre published date. The recent record, from the fact sheets themselves:

• 2026 figures: November 14, 2025
• 2025 figures: November 8, 2024
• 2024 figures: October 12, 2023
• 2023 figures: September 27, 2022 (early, because premiums were falling)

The last two years both landed in the first half of November, on the 8th and the 14th. The two before that did not. Anyone telling you the announcement always comes in a specific week is working from a two year sample.

1. If you are near an IRMAA threshold, the 2025 tax year is already closed. Your 2027 surcharge is locked to a return you have already filed. What you can still influence is 2028, which keys off 2026 income.
2. If your income dropped because you retired, got divorced, or lost a spouse, you may qualify for Social Security to use current income instead of the two year old figure via Form SSA-44.
3. Every 2027 figure, with its state and source, sits in one table: the 2027 Medicare numbers page.
4. The 2027 Part D numbers are already final, unlike Part B. See the 2027 Part D costs page.

• Aug 12, 2026Page created. Trustees projection $209.50 and $292 recorded. TSCL COLA projection at 3.6%.

• CMS, 2026 Medicare Trustees Report, Table V.E2, SMI Cost-Sharing and Premium Amounts, and Table V.E1, HI Cost-Sharing and Premium Amounts, transmitted June 9, 2026
• CMS, 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles fact sheet, November 14, 2025
• Federal Register, Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rates, and Annual Deductible Beginning January 1, 2026, published November 19, 2025
• 42 U.S.C. 1395r, Social Security Act Section 1839, including the hold harmless provision at subsection (f)
• CMS, 2021 Medicare Trustees Report, and the 2022 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles fact sheet, November 12, 2021
• Social Security Administration, 2026 cost of living adjustment announcement, October 24, 2025
• Congressional Research Service, R40082, Medicare Part B: Enrollment and Premiums
• Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index release schedule
• MOAA, "Medicare Report Estimates Future Part B Premiums. What Will You Pay in 2027 and Beyond?", June 17, 2026
• MyFederalRetirement, "Projected 2027 Medicare Premium Increases Released in Trustee's Report," June 24, 2026
• Kiplinger, "Medicare 2027 Projections: Higher Premiums Are Coming, but There's Good News," updated July 28, 2026
• The Senior Citizens League, 2027 COLA projection updates, May through August 2026
• 24/7 Wall St., "Medicare's 2027 Part B Premium Is Projected to Push Past $215 a Month," July 7, 2026