The 2027 Social Security COLA, and what Medicare leaves of it

In short: October 14, 2026, because that is when the last input publishes.

The COLA is not a policy decision. It is the percentage change in a specific inflation index, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, measured across July, August, and September, compared against the same three months a year earlier.

The Social Security Administration announces the moment it has the September figure, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics has that release scheduled for Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

One caveat with recent precedent: the 2026 COLA announcement slipped to October 24, 2025, because a government shutdown delayed the underlying inflation data. That risk exists in any year the appropriations calendar is tight.

In short: 3.6% as of today, and it has come down twice since spring.

These projections move because only part of the measurement window has closed. Of the three months that count, July is in and August and September are not. Any number published before mid October is arithmetic on partial data.

For comparison, the 2026 COLA was 2.8%, announced by SSA on October 24, 2025. When the projection was still 3.8%, TSCL executive director Shannon Benton put the broader case this way: “A 3.8 percent COLA might sound like a lot compared to last year’s 2.8 percent, but it won’t be enough to make up the difference between what seniors bring in and what they need to live with dignity.”

In short: The Part B premium comes out before the payment reaches you, so your real raise is the COLA net of the premium increase.

If you are enrolled in Part B and receiving Social Security, your Part B premium is deducted from your benefit before it is paid. So the number you feel in January is not the COLA. It is the COLA minus whatever the premium did.

What happened for 2026, using final figures:

A premium rising more than three times as fast as the raise. For anyone with a modest benefit, that consumed a large share of the increase.

What is projected for 2027, and both of these are projections, so treat this as a shape rather than a number:

Using the Part B premium the Trustees Report projects, the increase would run $202.90 to $209.50, or $6.60 a month, 3.25%. The Senior Citizens League’s current outside estimate for the COLA is 3.6%, shown in the table above.

Here is the arithmetic, and it is ours rather than anyone’s published figure. A $6.60 monthly premium increase is fully covered by a 3.6% raise as long as your monthly Social Security benefit is above roughly $185. For nearly everyone, it is. Which means that unlike 2026, the projected 2027 premium increase should consume a modest share of the raise rather than most of it.

That is not the same as saying anyone comes out ahead against groceries, rent, or the Part D deductible, which is rising $85. It is a narrower claim: on the Part B line specifically, 2027 is projected to be considerably easier than 2026. Full detail on the premium itself: the 2027 Part B premium page.

In short: The rule that stops your check from shrinking only binds when the premium increase is bigger than your raise in dollars.

Section 1839(f) of the Social Security Act says your Part B premium cannot increase by more than the dollar amount of your COLA, so that your January payment does not fall below the prior December’s.

It is a dollar test, not a percentage test, and it is individualized. Two people with identical premiums can get different protection because their benefit amounts differ.

In a year like 2027, with a projected $6.60 premium increase against a projected 3.6% raise, hold harmless is unlikely to bind for anyone with a benefit above about $185 a month. It matters enormously in low COLA years and barely at all in years like this one is projected to be.

Who is outside the protection entirely, regardless of the year:

• Anyone enrolling in Part B for the first time that year.
• Anyone paying IRMAA. The statute excludes income related surcharge payers outright.
• Anyone whose premium is not deducted from a Social Security payment, including people paying by direct bill or deferring Social Security while on Part B.
• Anyone whose premium is paid by a state Medicaid program, and anyone who was in a Medicare Savings Program last year and has since lost it.

In short: Higher income enrollees have a bigger premium moving against the same raise, and no hold harmless protection.

If your modified adjusted gross income from your 2025 tax return is above the threshold, you pay the standard premium plus a surcharge, and the surcharge scales with the standard premium. A 3.25% increase in the standard premium is 3.25% applied to a larger base.

The 2027 income thresholds are set by a separate formula that closes at the end of August, and they become calculable on September 11, 2026. The first threshold is projected at $112,000 for a single filer and $224,000 for a married couple filing jointly. Full detail: the 2027 IRMAA brackets page.

In short: Very little, until October 14. Then two things.

The COLA is not something to plan around, because it applies to everyone identically and arrives on a fixed date. Two things are worth doing when it lands:

1. Do the net math for your own benefit, not the percentage. Take your actual monthly benefit, apply the announced COLA, then subtract the announced Part B premium increase once CMS publishes it a few weeks later. That difference is your real raise.
2. Check whether the raise pushes you across an income line for a program you rely on. Medicare Savings Programs and Extra Help both have income limits, and a COLA can move someone over one. Those limits are usually updated for the new year as well, but not always by the same percentage.

• Aug 12, 2026Page created. TSCL projection at 3.6%.

• Social Security Administration, cost of living adjustment information and the 2026 COLA announcement of October 24, 2025
• Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index release schedule
• CMS, 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles fact sheet, November 14, 2025
• CMS, 2026 Medicare Trustees Report, transmitted June 9, 2026
• 42 U.S.C. 1395r(f), the hold harmless provision
• The Senior Citizens League, 2027 COLA projection updates, May, June, and August 2026