Drug prices & Part D
Medicare Part D Drug Spending Is Projected to Nearly Double by 2035, With GLP-1 Prescriptions as the Primary Driver
A KFF analysis of the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects annual Part D spending will climb from 181 billion dollars in 2025 to 346 billion dollars in 2035, a pace driven largely by surging use of GLP-1 drugs for diabetes and weight loss. The data arrives six weeks before open enrollment opens.
By the Goodsurance editorial teamSeptember 11, 2026
Medicare Part D drug spending is projected to nearly double over the next decade, according to a KFF analysis of the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report. Annual Part D spending is expected to rise from 181 billion dollars in 2025 to 346 billion dollars in 2035, an average annual growth rate of 6.7 percent. That is faster than the 4.8 percent growth rate projected for a comparable period in last year's report.
KFF's analysis of the Trustees Report identifies GLP-1 medications as the primary driver of the higher projection. GLP-1 drugs treat type 2 diabetes and, since 2023, obesity-related weight loss. A separate KFF analysis of Medicare Part D claims data found that gross Part D spending on GLP-1 drugs reached 27.5 billion dollars in 2024, a five-fold increase from 2019. The number of Part D prescription claims for GLP-1 drugs rose from 4.8 million in 2019 to 21.8 million in 2024, according to that analysis.
Medicare drug spending could nearly double by 2035, with GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic as the main cause, a KFF analysis of the 2026 Trustees Report finds.
Two GLP-1 drugs are already subject to Medicare price negotiation. A negotiated price for semaglutide, sold as Ozempic and Rybelsus, is set to take effect in 2027. A negotiated price for dulaglutide, sold as Trulicity, is set for the 2028 price applicability year. KFF notes those negotiated prices could help moderate some of the projected spending increase.
The projections arrive six weeks before the 2027 Medicare Annual Enrollment Period opens October 15, when beneficiaries can compare and switch Part D drug plans and Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage.
In plain words
Medicare helps pay for prescription drugs. A recent study says the total amount Medicare spends on drugs could almost double in 10 years. The main reason is that more and more people are taking GLP-1 drugs. These drugs treat diabetes and help people lose weight. Medicare spent 27.5 billion dollars on these drugs just in 2024. That is five times more than in 2019. Medicare is trying to lower the price of some of these drugs. When drug costs go up, the monthly premiums for drug plans can also go up. The Medicare enrollment period opens October 15, when people can compare and change their drug plans.
Understand the basics first
Source: KFF
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