CBO: Federal Health Spending Will Rise 65 Percent by 2036, With Medicare Adding 900 Billion Dollars

The Congressional Budget Office released its annual health-subsidy report on July 23, 2026, projecting that federal spending on health coverage will grow 65 percent over the next decade. In 2026, federal health insurance subsidies total an estimated 2.4 trillion dollars, equal to 7.4 percent of gross domestic product. By 2036, CBO projects that figure will reach 3.9 trillion dollars, or 8.4 percent of gross domestic product. The 10-year total across all federal health programs is projected at 33.6 trillion dollars.

Medicare is the single largest contributor to the growth, with subsidies projected to rise by approximately 900 billion dollars over the window. An average of 318 million Americans are projected to have health coverage in any given month over the period.

The report provides the baseline Congress uses when evaluating proposed changes to Medicare, Medicaid, and marketplace programs. For Medicare enrollees, the numbers underscore the program's central role in the federal budget and the pressure long-run spending growth places on program sustainability, premiums, and benefit decisions. CBO projections do not predict cuts; they frame the financial environment in which any future legislative changes would be made.