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Costs & IRMAA

Your 2027 raise, and what eats it

Early estimates put next year's Social Security cost-of-living raise somewhere between about 3.8 and 4.7 percent. History says a good chunk of it gets quietly absorbed by the Medicare Part B premium.

By the Goodsurance editorial teamJune 27, 2026

Every autumn, two numbers decide what really lands in an older household's budget: the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), and the Medicare Part B premium, which for most people is pulled straight out of the Social Security check before it arrives. The 2027 COLA will not be official until October 2026, when the government runs the third-quarter inflation figures, but the early estimates are in. The Senior Citizens League projects about 3.8 percent, while the independent analyst Mary Johnson has pointed to as high as 4.7 percent. Either way it would be one of the larger raises of the past decade. The reason the raise can feel smaller than the headline is mechanical, not mysterious. The Part B premium tends to rise too, and because it is deducted from the Social Security payment, an increase there offsets part of the COLA before a beneficiary ever sees it. For 2026 the standard Part B premium is $202.90 a month; the 2027 figure has not been set and will be announced later this year. So the honest framing for planning is two-sided: a 3.8 to 4.7 percent raise is real and welcome, and some of it will go back out the door as a higher health premium, with the net depending on figures that are not final yet. None of this is a reason to panic or to make a coverage change you would not otherwise make. It is a reason to wait for the official October numbers before budgeting the raise, and to remember that the Part B premium is the same whether you are in Original Medicare or a Medicare Advantage plan.

In plain words

Each year, Social Security gives a raise to keep up with prices. Early guesses for 2027 are between about 3.8 and 4.7 percent. The real number comes out in October. Here is why the raise can feel smaller: the Medicare Part B premium usually goes up too, and it is taken out of your Social Security check before you get it. So part of the raise goes right back out for health coverage. Right now the Part B premium is $202.90 a month; next year's is not set yet. The smart move is to wait for the October numbers before you count on the extra money.

Understand the basics first

Source: CNBC
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