KFF Projects Three in Four Standalone Part D Enrollees Will Pay Higher Premiums in 2027 Once the Stabilization Subsidy Expires

A KFF analysis published in late July 2026 quantified the likely premium impact of CMS's July 28 decision to end the Medicare Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after the 2026 plan year. KFF found that approximately 75 percent of the roughly 25 million people enrolled in standalone prescription drug plans are expected to pay a higher monthly premium in 2027 than in 2026. About 45 percent of that group may see increases in the range of 11 to 20 dollars per month.

The demonstration had reduced standalone Part D plan premiums by an average of 16 dollars per month in 2026. Without that subsidy, plan sponsors will need to reflect their full costs in their 2027 bids, pushing premiums upward for most enrollees. CMS has confirmed the 2027 base beneficiary premium, which serves as the starting point for all plan-specific Part D premium calculations, will rise to 41.33 dollars, up from 38.99 dollars in 2026, an increase of roughly 6 percent and the maximum allowed under the Inflation Reduction Act through 2029.

KFF noted that plan-specific premiums can vary substantially above the base rate and that the full 2027 landscape of plans and their actual costs will not be available until mid to late September. Beneficiaries who want to compare options and potentially switch to a lower-cost plan have the annual enrollment period, which runs from October 15 through December 7, to do so.