The three months that set your 2027 raise just began

Every January, Social Security checks get a cost of living adjustment, and every fall the headlines treat the announcement as a surprise. It is not. The raise is set by a fixed piece of arithmetic, and that arithmetic began this week. By law, the COLA compares average inflation in July, August, and September against the same three months a year earlier, using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the index; the Social Security Administration runs the comparison and announces the result in October, once the September reading is in. That means the three months that decide the 2027 raise started on July 1, and nothing published before mid October is more than an estimate. The history shows how wide the outcome can swing: the raise was 8.7 percent for 2023 during the inflation spike, zero three times in the 2010s, and 2.8 percent for 2026. Two practical notes follow. First, summer projection headlines will keep moving as each month's inflation number lands. They are estimates of an unfinished average, so read them the way you read a weather forecast for October: interesting, not actionable. Second, what actually reaches your bank account also depends on the Medicare Part B premium, which is deducted from most Social Security payments and is announced separately in the fall; the standard premium is $202.90 a month in 2026, and the 2027 figure is not set. The number that matters arrives in October, and your personal amount shows up in the COLA notice in your my Social Security account in late November or December.